Thursday, February 9, 2012

PREDICTION: 6 to 12 Months Hence, Investor Sentiment Will Turn Against Apple.


This isn't my prediction. Well, not entirely. While I have made similar predictions in the not so distant past, I would never be so bold as to attach a time period to my predictions!

This prediction comes from David Garrity who is a tech analyst at GVA Research. It stems from Apple's latest announcement to begin selling text books to iPad users. This non event may be the catalyst for the ultimate demise of Apple.

From a recent Breakout interview on Yahoo! Finance :

"The issue still comes down to vision, or perhaps lack thereof, coming out of Cupertino. "Clearly we do have a vacuum, from a marketing standpoint," says Garrity. "From a presentation standpoint and, perhaps over time, we'll have a deficit from a vision standpoint.""


This is not too far from my own views on Apple and the death of Steve Jobs, as expressed in A Tale of Two Apples.

The cloud that hovers over Apple these days is one of vision for the future. Steve Jobs clearly had it, and he knew how to wield it most effectively. The question now is, does any would be successor have the vision and can he wield it to similar effect. The jury is clearly out on this question, but Garrity suggests the jury may have its decision within the year.

We'll wait and see.

For what it's worth, I think Steve Jobs is irreplaceable and once the pipeline of Jobs' ideas is spent, the world (and investment community) will turn its back on Apple, leaving it to languish as it did through much of the 1990's.

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